MD 1755 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 490… FOR PORTIONS OF KS…SERN NEB
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF KS...SERN NEB
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 490...
VALID 042149Z - 042315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 490 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS INCLUDING TORNADOES CONTINUES
ACROSS WW 490.
DISCUSSION...THE SVR RISK INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS WILL VARY WITHIN MULTIPLE REGIMES:
/1/ DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS NOW DEVELOPING W/SW OF WICHITA
ALONG A DRYLINE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME ROOTED AT THE SFC.
THE AIR MASS E OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 45 KT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
WHILE SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF S-CNTRL KS. TORNADOES MAY OCCUR AS
INCIPIENT STAGES OF NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING FOSTER AN
UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL SRH.
/2/ QUASI-LINEAR-MODE CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONT
ARCING FROM S-CNTRL NEB TO CNTRL KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ORIENTED MORE
PARALLEL TO THE MIDLEVEL FLOW...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR
WINDS AND POSSIBLY SVR HAIL WHILE SPREADING NEWD.
/3/ SOMEWHAT MORE SEMI-DISCRETE/CLUSTER-MODE CONVECTION -- INCLUDING
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES -- IS EVOLVING WITHIN A PLUME OF WAA ACROSS
NERN KS. ALL SVR HAZARDS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS
ACROSS NERN KS AND INTO SERN NEB SHORTLY. THE TWX VWP INDICATES
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SRH...CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A BRIEF TORNADO WITH ANY
SUSTAINED RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...MUTED DIURNAL GAINS IN
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIP COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL.
..COHEN.. 10/04/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37349827 38609802 39999733 40899716 40929660 40259587
38409624 37219678 37059790 37349827
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2dqMi7J
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