SPC MD 1760

MD 1760 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF ERN KS AND NERN OK

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1760
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT TUE OCT 04 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN KS AND NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 050049Z - 050315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WITH THE APPROACHING 02Z EXPIRATION TIME OF TORNADO
WATCHES 490/491...A CONTINUED SVR RISK EWD ACROSS PARTS OF SERN KS
AND NERN OK COULD WARRANT DOWNSTREAM SVR TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING SUPERCELL CLUSTERS AND SHORT QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS FROM ERN KS TO N-CNTRL OK WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE 00Z OUN RAOB SAMPLED MODERATE INSTABILITY -- MLCAPE AROUND 
2000 J/KG -- FEEDING THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH AROUND 45-50 KT OF
DEEP SHEAR. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE FROM
PARTS OF SRN KS INTO OK...WHILE A COOLER/DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
FARTHER N WILL LIMIT THE SVR RISK. CONTINUED NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING
OF THE LLJ...AND RELATED WAA...MAY FOSTER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH
INTO AN MCS STRUCTURE...WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY NECESSITATE NEW WW ISSUANCE ACROSS PARTS OF SERN KS AND NERN
OK...AFFECTING THE ICT/TSA/OUN CWA/S....AS WW/S 490 AND 491 EXPIRE
AT 02Z. NOCTURNAL GAINS IN MLCINH...THE NARROW WIDTH OF THE
NON-NEGLIGIBLE BUOYANCY CORRIDOR...COUPLED WITH THE STRONGER DEEP
ASCENT GAINING LATITUDINAL DISPLACEMENT FROM THE STRONGER
BUOYANCY...COULD BE MITIGATING FACTORS FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR
RISK.

..COHEN/EDWARDS/THOMPSON.. 10/05/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37809652 38319606 38189542 37399549 36759568 36459585
            36189636 36189708 36539728 37809652 

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