MD 1768 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 493… FOR ERN KS THROUGH SERN NEB…SWRN IA AND NWRN MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1768 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0512 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS THROUGH SERN NEB...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 493... VALID 062212Z - 062345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 493 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THREAT FOR TORNADOES INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL REMAIN GREATEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS THROUGH 00Z. THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND TOWARD MID EVENING...BUT SOME TORNADO THREAT MAY PERSIST BEYOND 02Z. DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A LINE OF SUPERCELLS CONTINUES DEVELOPING ALONG DRYLINE FROM NERN THROUGH SCNTRL KS. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY RESIDES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORMS WHERE 50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 300-400 M2/S2 STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY EXISTS IN WARM SECTOR AND IN VICINITY OF A MODIFIED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN GREATEST AS STORMS EVOLVE WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND WHILE UPDRAFTS REMAIN AT LEAST PARTIALLY DISCRETE. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS SURGING EWD AND MERGING WITH THE DRYLINE...AND THIS PROCESS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN EVENTUAL UPSCALE LINEAR GROWTH SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND THREAT BY 01Z. OTHER STORMS PERSIST ACROSS SERN KS. THESE STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A CLUSTER. HOWEVER...THEY REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH 00Z. ..DIAL.. 10/06/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37879761 39599685 39679586 38729611 37859583 37189561 37079763 37879761
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2dywZc0
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