SPC MD 1791

MD 1791 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ERN KS…NE OK…FAR NW AR…WCNTRL MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NE OK...FAR NW AR...WCNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 102058Z - 102330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS...FAR
NE OK AND WCNTRL MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
THE MCD AREA.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRONOUNCED CORRIDOR OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NNEWD FROM NE OK INTO FAR ERN KS AND
WRN MO WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
ERN KS AND WRN MO WITH MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG
RANGE BY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR THE
INSTABILITY MAX. THE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SRN MO. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MCD AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...INCREASING SUBSIDENCE MAY INHIBIT VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT GROWTH. HOWEVER...THE SPRINGFIELD MO WSR-88D VWP
SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 30 KT SUGGESTING THAT THE WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. THIS
COMBINED WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS.

..BROYLES/HART.. 09/10/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   36779370 37239316 37759275 38549295 38929350 39099392
            39229431 39249445 39169499 38989531 38529562 36789544
            36159462 36779370 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1varv7R