MD 1813 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511… FOR NERN KS / NWRN AND NRN MO / S-CNTRL IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1813
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS / NWRN AND NRN MO / S-CNTRL IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511...
VALID 180312Z - 180415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...DISCRETE STORMS WITH INTERMITTENT SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE CAPABLE OF ISOLD LARGE
HAIL AND PERHAPS DMGG WINDS.
DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DISCRETE STORMS OVER THE LOWER MO
VALLEY WITH THE ACTIVITY INVOF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD OVER THE
REGION. A SWLY 40 KT LLJ PER KTWX AND KEAX VAD DATA WILL CONTINUE
PROVIDING STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STORM INFLOW
REGION. DESPITE A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S ARE AIDING IN A FEED OF NEAR-SURFACE PARCELS. A VEERING
AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT UP THROUGH THE MID
TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS. UNTIL STORMS INGEST INCREASINGLY ELEVATED PARCELS...STORM
INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY BE MAINTAINED AND A LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND
RISK WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS S-CNTRL IA INTO NWRN AND N-CNTRL MO
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..SMITH.. 09/18/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39459557 41079391 41039268 40329255 39679348 39239423
39189501 39459557
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1QKryCA
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