MD 1907 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NE…EASTERN KS…NORTHEAST OK…WESTERN MO…AND SOUTHWEST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1907
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016
Areas affected...southeast NE...eastern KS...northeast OK...western
MO...and southwest IA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 252127Z - 252330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A line of showers will continue to track eastward across
parts of eastern NE, KS, and OK this afternoon and into parts of
IA/MO this evening. While an isolated severe wind gust is possible,
organized severe weather is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...The latest radar loop shows a relatively fast-moving
convective line extending from just west of OMA, to near MHK, to
east of OKC. Individual elements within the line are moving
northeastward at over 50 knots, and local VAD data continues to show
1km AGL wind speeds of 55-65 knots. This would suggest a
conditional threat of convective wind enhancement in any more robust
cells. However, virtually no CG lightning strikes have occurred
south of the NE/KS border since 19z, indicative of the shallow
nature of the activity. Wind gusts in the 30-40 knot range have
been common ahead-of and along the line, but very few severe gusts
have been noted. Unless convective trends change, it is unlikely
that a watch will be required for this activity.
..Hart/Grams.. 12/25/2016
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 37069654 38429626 39749629 40969644 41549664 41679483
40579417 38999370 36979431 36169566 36159685 37069654
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2ihahX4
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