SPC MD 1939

MD 1939 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 534… FOR CNTRL/SRN IA…NRN MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1939
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CST WED NOV 11 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IA...NRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 534...

VALID 111942Z - 112115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 534 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AND PEAK IN THE 21-00Z TIME
FRAME AS STORMS IN AN ARCING BAND ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 991 MB CYCLONE NEAR OMAHA
WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING S TOWARDS THE WRN KANSAS CITY METRO AREA.
CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE HAS STRUGGLED TO GREATLY INTENSIFY OVER
THE PAST HOUR...BUT SHOULD TURN THE CORNER AND DEVELOP SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES DURING THE NEXT HOUR AS THE PEAK COMBO OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR/FORCING BECOMES PRESENT. CLOUD BREAKS AHEAD OF THE
BAND HAVE SUPPORTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S
TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS NRN MO...YIELDING MEAGER MLCAPE TO AROUND 500
J/KG. HIGHLY ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS SAMPLED IN THE 18Z TOP RAOB AND
AREA VWP DATA AMID ROBUST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 3 MB/HR IN THE
LEFT-EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET SHOULD FAVOR
FAST-MOVING CONVECTION WITH A RISK FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS CONTINUING
INTO EARLY EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 11/11/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON   41189552 41519550 41899535 42229515 42369462 42259377
            41939321 41409252 40949230 40589225 40029238 39589282
            39339312 39189386 39229417 39569458 40359498 41189552 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1LaA9cA