SPC MD 1947

MD 1947 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR TX PANHANDLE…WEST TX…OK PANHANDLE…FAR SE CO…SW KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1947
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CST MON NOV 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...WEST TX...OK PANHANDLE...FAR SE
CO...SW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 161844Z - 162115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE ACROSS
THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
INCREASE. A TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WW ISSUANCE
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE MCD AREA BY THE TOP OF THE HOUR.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 995 MB LOW OVER SE CO WITH
A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOCATED ACROSS NW TX AND SW OK. SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F IN NW TX AND IN THE MID 50S F ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND SW KS. INSTABILITY HAS STEADILY INCREASED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN
THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED EXPANSION IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE
INSTABILITY...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ARE
SHOWING STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE NWD
INTO SW KS WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS ESTIMATED FROM 55 TO 70 KT. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT ESPECIALLY AS
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONSIDERING THE FAST NEWD MOVEMENT OF CELLS AT NEAR 50 KT...A WIND
DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST. AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL
JET MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES...SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOES.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 11/16/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   34540061 34150261 34980299 36240292 37800213 38490164
            38480024 37849978 37139991 34540061 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1LioWqq