MD 1999 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NWRN TX…SWRN THROUGH NCNTRL OK AND SERN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1999
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0814 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...SWRN THROUGH NCNTRL OK AND SERN KS
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 280214Z - 280715Z
SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES LOCALLY EXCEEDING .05 INCH PER
HOUR NOW OVER NWRN TX INTO SWRN AND CNTRL OK WILL EXPAND NEWD
THROUGH NCNTRL OK AND SERN KS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
DISCUSSION...THIS EVENING A QUASI-STATIONARY SW-NE ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE EVIDENT AT 850 MB REMAINS SITUATED FROM SWRN TX
THROUGH CNTRL OK INTO ERN KS. RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
NEWD-EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION FROM WRN TX THROUGH SWRN OK.
THIS EXPANSION IN PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE LUBBOCK
VWP INDICATE BACKING OF WINDS IN THE 4-6 KM LAYER JUST AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE DURING THE PAST HOUR. MODERATE SLY WINDS ABOVE THE SHALLOW
STABLE LAYER WILL MAINTAIN A SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE WITH TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 5-10C INDICATED AT 850 MB. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN FREEZING
RAIN AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM NWRN TX THROUGH
CNTRL/NRN OK INTO ERN KS...AND THE FREEZING LINE MAY CREEP A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT GIVEN PERSISTENT NLY WINDS WITH COLD
ADVECTION IN THE SFC LAYER. CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION
RATES IS ALSO OCCURRING...MAINLY FROM WRN TX INTO WRN OK WHERE
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST...AND THIS IS WHERE GREATER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 20S.
..DIAL.. 11/28/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 34700101 36959834 38359608 37789491 35419704 32860125
33430222 34700101
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1NdLkCz
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