MD 2001 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF NWRN OK AND CNTRL/NERN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2001
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN OK AND CNTRL/NERN KS
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 300152Z - 300745Z
SUMMARY...LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NEWD THROUGH 08Z. FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY EXCEED 0.05 INCH PER
3 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER JET WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING COVERAGE
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NWRN OK INTO PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/NERN KS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY
ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTS THIS PROCESS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN NWRN
OK/FAR S-CNTRL KS AS OF 0130Z. RAP MESOANALYSIS FROM 01Z DEPICTS THE
SFC WET-BULB-ZERO LINE EXTENDING FROM CANADIAN TX TO ALVA OK...AND
CONTINUING NEWD TO MANHATTAN KS. A NARROW CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM
NWRN OK INTO CNTRL/NERN KS SHOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 08Z PER 00Z
SOUNDINGS FROM AMARILLO TX AND TOPEKA KS. TO THE SE OF THIS
AREA...SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...
SUGGESTING RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PTYPE. NW OF THIS REGION THE
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS ALMOST COMPLETELY ERODED PER THE 00Z SOUNDING
FROM DODGE CITY KS...SUGGESTING THE PRIMARY PTYPE SHOULD TRANSITION
MORE TO SLEET/SLOW WITH NW EXTENT. WHILE MOST MODELS SUGGEST QPF
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY MODERATE FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO 0.10 INCH/HR FOR PORTIONS
OF CNTRL/NERN KS AFTER 06Z...AS ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER JET AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
..GLEASON.. 11/30/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 36139929 36199989 36659993 37039992 37989948 39609814
39639713 39079642 38129689 37009830 36139929
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1YCjPL5
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