MD 2096 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF SERN KS SWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN OK AND INTO PARTS OF WRN NORTH TX
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN KS SWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/WRN OK AND INTO PARTS OF WRN NORTH TX
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 280841Z - 281445Z
SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY FROM PARTS OF SERN KS SWD TO WRN N TX INCLUDING PARTS OF
CNTRL/WRN OK DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF BY THE
MID/LATE MORNING HOURS.
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE THE CENTER OF A DEEP/COMPACT
CYCLONE CROSSING TX HAVING RECENTLY GAINED MORE APPRECIABLE LATITUDE
AS IT TRACKS ACROSS TX. A CORRESPONDING DEFORMATION-ZONE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD STRETCHES FROM THE TERMINUS OF A BIFURCATING
WARM CONVEYOR OVER THE MO OZARKS SWWD TO WRN N TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS
BEING FED BY AMPLE MOISTURE FROM A LOBE OF ASCENT/DCVA IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING THE CYCLONE CENTER APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX. THE
DEFORMATION-ZONE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS FORECAST TO PIVOT IN A
COUNTERCLOCKWISE FASHION IN RESPONSE TO THE N-OF-E TRACK OF THE
PARENT MID-LEVEL CYCLONE...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. MEANWHILE...A WAVY 32-F SFC ISOTHERM EXTENDS FROM E-CNTRL KS
THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA TO NEAR WICHITA FALLS TX. COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A GENERAL SWD/SEWD SHIFT OF THIS
ISOTHERM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...YIELDING MIXED
PRECIPITATION TYPES.
THE 00Z NORMAN OK RAOB AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED
WARM-LAYER TEMPERATURES AROUND THE 3-6C RANGE SUPPORTING COMPLETE
MELTING OF DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES JUST
ABOVE THE SFC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHALLOW PBL WHOSE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AROUND -8C TO -5C MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO SUPPORT
COMPLETE RE-FREEZING OF THESE HYDROMETEORS BEFORE THEY REACH THE
SFC -- RESULTING IN SLEET AS OPPOSED TO FREEZING RAIN OWING TO ICE
NUCLEATION AT THE TOP OF THE PBL. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
NEAR AND W OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WHERE COOLER WARM-NOSE
TEMPERATURES EXIST. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. SLEET-ACCUMULATION RATES ON THE ORDER OF
AROUND 0.05-0.15 INCH PER HOUR...AND FREEZING-RAIN RATES ON THE
ORDER OF 0.02-0.05 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF BY MID/LATE MORNING AS THE
EVOLVING EXTRATROPICAL-CYCLONE COMMA HEAD TRACKS NEWD AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW MAY ALSO OCCUR IF PRECIPITATION
WERE TO LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO COOLING WITHIN THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER.
..COHEN.. 12/28/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 33829827 33839909 34429924 35719878 36999798 38049676
38229597 37929538 37309557 36029647 34629746 33829827
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1SiEBxI
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