MD 0223 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0223
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017
Areas affected...Portions of eastern Kansas and northern/central
Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 010005Z - 010200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms should increase in coverage across the region this
evening, with a growing threat for tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging winds. Cells will likely organize from portions of
southeastern Kansas northeastward to west-central Illinois over the
next several hours. Tornado watch issuance is likely over northern
Missouri shortly. Additional watch issuance farther south is also
possible this evening.
DISCUSSION...Observational data early this evening suggest
increasing large-scale ascent is beginning to overspread the region,
with a few cells developing along surface confluence near the cold
front just east of the Kansas City metro. KSGF VWP data depict a
growing, clockwise-looping hodograph over the last 2-3 hours,
indicating strengthening warm-air advection in response to forcing
for ascent with the approaching trough. As mid-level temperatures
continue to cool, thunderstorms will organize from southeastern
Kansas to northern Missouri.
A pool of higher surface dew points (generally in the lower 60s)
currently exists across northeast OK and southeast KS, and
strengthening low-level south/southwesterly flow should advect this
moisture northeast through the evening. With regional soundings
sampling steep mid-level lapse rates over the region, MLCAPE values
around 1000-2000 J/kg should be realized from southeastern KS into
central MO. Strong southwesterly 850-700-mb flow will enhance
storm-relative helicity considerably, favoring low-level
mesocyclogenesis in any supercellular structures that develop. While
there is some uncertainty with the storm mode due to linear forcing
along the front, recent convection-allowing guidance suggests that a
cluster of supercells may form over the next 2 hours or so.
Considering the kinematic and thermodynamic environment, any
sustained supercell would be capable of tornadoes, with the
potential for a strong tornado or two. These cells would shift
northeast from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri through the
evening and into the overnight hours.
..Picca.. 03/01/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37279653 38449534 39779355 40379285 40419232 40139178
39549117 38539134 37199346 37009430 37029615 37139643
37279653
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1ybTuuu
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