MD 0228 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0228 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2019 Areas affected...north-central Kansas and south-central Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 231956Z - 232200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon within a low-level-directional-sheared environment. Although instability will remain limited, small hail and a brief tornado or two may be possible. DISCUSSION...A strong surface low will move east-northeast, across northwest Kansas, this afternoon and evening. Although instability is limited along and ahead of this surface low, strong large-scale ascent, steep midlevel-lapse rates, and little-if-any convective inhibition will promote the development of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. The large-scale wind field is relatively weak across the area, but does exhibit strong low-level direction shear. Thus, even though thunderstorm updrafts may not be capable of sustained mid-level rotation, shallow, transient mesocyclones will be possible with any discrete thunderstorm. Additionally, cold midlevel temperatures will also support the potential for small hail/graupel with any sustained updraft. The threat should quickly end with the loss of diurnal heating. A watch is currently not expected. ..Marsh/Hart.. 03/23/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38709927 39649985 40589701 39479656 37959697 38709927
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1FBDdif
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