SPC MD 245


MD 0245 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0955 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019

Areas affected...Portions of northeast Kansas...northwest
Missouri...and far southeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 281455Z - 281700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms, some of which have produced marginally
severe hail, will continue to evolve through the area in the next
few hours, with the threat for severe hail continuing.  A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...Two separate areas of elevated thunderstorms are
approaching the area, one from the west that is beginning to show
some upscale growth over the Nebraska/Kansas border and another
cluster of left-moving cells with some supercell characteristics
approaching the area from the south.  The elevated CAPE of 500-1250
J/kg and a mid-level-lapse rate plume of 7-8 C/km that has supported
this convection stretches east ahead of the current storms.  This
suggests the intensity of these storms will be maintained in the
next few hours.  

HRRR guidance suggests some continuation of upscale growth seen in
recent radar imagery in the northern cluster.  This decrease in
discrete modes suggests some downward trend in severe hail threat
with the northern cluster, and a lack of surface heating underneath
the extensive anvils and the deep surface stable layer should
continue to limit the severe wind threat.  However, HRRR guidance
has not depicted well the left-moving cluster of cells/supercells
approaching the Topeka area, and the threat for marginally severe
hail should continue with this cluster as more discrete/cellular
modes are expected to continue.  Although the coverage and intensity
of the threat is rather limited, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be
needed if trends persist given the marginal severe hail threat.

..Coniglio/Hart.. 03/28/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   40789633 40509487 39949361 39059341 38339412 38259534
            38399687 39389769 40369744 40789633 

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