MD 0245 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS…NORTHWEST MISSOURI…AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0245 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2019 Areas affected...Portions of northeast Kansas...northwest Missouri...and far southeast Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281455Z - 281700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms, some of which have produced marginally severe hail, will continue to evolve through the area in the next few hours, with the threat for severe hail continuing. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Two separate areas of elevated thunderstorms are approaching the area, one from the west that is beginning to show some upscale growth over the Nebraska/Kansas border and another cluster of left-moving cells with some supercell characteristics approaching the area from the south. The elevated CAPE of 500-1250 J/kg and a mid-level-lapse rate plume of 7-8 C/km that has supported this convection stretches east ahead of the current storms. This suggests the intensity of these storms will be maintained in the next few hours. HRRR guidance suggests some continuation of upscale growth seen in recent radar imagery in the northern cluster. This decrease in discrete modes suggests some downward trend in severe hail threat with the northern cluster, and a lack of surface heating underneath the extensive anvils and the deep surface stable layer should continue to limit the severe wind threat. However, HRRR guidance has not depicted well the left-moving cluster of cells/supercells approaching the Topeka area, and the threat for marginally severe hail should continue with this cluster as more discrete/cellular modes are expected to continue. Although the coverage and intensity of the threat is rather limited, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed if trends persist given the marginal severe hail threat. ..Coniglio/Hart.. 03/28/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 40789633 40509487 39949361 39059341 38339412 38259534 38399687 39389769 40369744 40789633
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