SPC MD 246

MD 0246 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA…SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS…SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI…AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

MD 0246 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0246
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0839 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019

Areas affected...Central/northeastern Oklahoma...southeastern
Kansas...southwestern Missouri...and far northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 291339Z - 291515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Occasional instances of 1+ inch hailstones are possible
with stronger thunderstorms over the next couple of hours.  A WW
issuance is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection persists along an axis from near
CQB to near TUL and BVO - and is more widespread than operational
models depict.  Though forcing for ascent aloft is negligible,
mid-level instability (8.5-9 deg C/km) noted on 12Z soundings and
subtle speed convergence at the base of this unstable layer (800-850
mb) is likely forcing ongoing convection along the eastern edge of
the strongest lapse rates.  Though effective shear is marginal, the
magnitude of lapse rates will continue to support a hail risk with
the strongest storms, with 1" or greater hail stones possible for
the next couple of hours.

Over time, flow at 800-850mb is expected to weaken and back to a
more south-southwesterly direction in response to cyclogenesis over
central Kansas.  This will likely lead to a weakening of ongoing
convection as convergence near the base of the lapse rate plume
weakens.  Thus, the isolated nature of the severe threat with
ongoing convection and expected weakening of this activity precludes
any need for a WW issuance.

..Cook.. 03/29/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37829623 38029570 38179474 38069404 37609369 36629375
            35849424 35359490 35119592 35029678 35069726 35279751
            35729736 36319710 36859705 37249691 37449670 37829623 

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