MD 0267 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0267 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Sat Apr 06 2019 Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062030Z - 062300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail may occur this afternoon into the early evening. Watch issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a shortwave trough across parts of central KS. Cloud cover has generally been more prevalent across this area compared to locations farther south, and instability should generally remain weak through the evening. Although low to mid-level winds are more southerly per KICT and KTOP VWPs, some speed shear is present in RAP forecast soundings across parts of central/eastern KS. Related 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear may be enough to support occasional updraft organization, and marginally severe hail could occur as mid-level lapse rates modestly steepen with the approach of the shortwave trough. The overall severe threat will likely remain too isolated and marginal to warrant watch issuance. ..Gleason/Hart.. 04/06/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37029806 37409834 38429838 39239783 39369645 39019546 38039502 37479518 37069561 37029806
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2IdYbNG
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