MD 0268 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VA…CENTRAL NC INTO NORTH-CENTRAL SC
Mesoscale Discussion 0268
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
Areas affected...portions of south-central VA...central NC into
north-central SC
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 151829Z - 152000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat will spread eastward into the NC/VA
Piedmont vicinity this afternoon and evening. A threat of damaging
wind and a few tornadoes will ensue as a line of convection across
western NC/VA continues to track east-northeast across the region. A
new tornado watch will be needed downstream of WW 52.
DISCUSSION...Strong heating beneath thin cirrus has allowed
temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s across the NC/VA
Piedmont vicinity this afternoon. This is a bit warmer than forecast
guidance previously has suggested, resulting in modestly improved
thermodynamic profiles. Regardless, surface based instability is
expected to top out around 1000-1500 J/kg at most across the region.
While midlevel lapse rates will remain lackluster, warmer boundary
layer temperatures should result in steeper surface to 3km lapse
rates. 18z Mesoanalysis indicates low level lapse rates have
increased to around 7 deg C/km. Furthermore, low level kinematics
should continue to improve as the surface low continues to push
east-northeast across the central Appalachians. On the whole, this
will maintain severe threat into the Piedmont vicinity as QLCS
across western VA/NC/SC continues northeastward. Strong deep layer
shear with fast storm motion and previously mentioned steepened low
level lapse rates will support damaging potential. Furthermore,
backed low level flow and 0-1km SRH greater than 200 m2/s2 will
support rotation in embedded supercell structures/mesovorticies
along the line.
More recently, showers have developed across the warm sector ahead
of the eastward advancing line. At this time these showers remain
rather shallow and weak. While some intensification is possible as
forcing for ascent increases, severe potential remains uncertain and
the main focus for severe threat remains the eastward advancing
line.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 04/15/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34467898 34387943 34477985 34588021 34818034 35198045
35948045 36698050 37128045 37438033 37917979 38107950
38077905 37957874 37587839 37177831 36387826 34717853
34467898
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