MD 0293 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 58… FOR NERN OK…SERN KS…FAR SWRN MO AND NWRN AR
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0293
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...SERN KS...FAR SWRN MO AND NWRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 58...
VALID 302322Z - 310015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 58
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WATCH 58 REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS SERN KS
AND NERN OK. THIS THREAT COULD EXTEND E OF THE WATCH BY 00-01Z...BUT
IT IS UNCERTAIN IF A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS NERN OK AND SERN KS.
THE MOST INTENSE STORM OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS OCCURRED OVER OSAGE
COUNTY OK...BUT HAS SINCE WEAKENED WITH EWD PROGRESSION INTO A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS OWING TO EARLIER PRECIPITATION. BRIEF
UPWARD PULSES IN CONVECTION ACROSS KS HAVE BEEN NOTED...BUT TSTMS
HAVE GENERALLY STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN A SUSTAINED SVR THREAT THUS
FAR. MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN FOCUSED FARTHER WEST ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND THESE STORMS HAVE APPEARED TO BECOME DOMINANT.
LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE PROGRESSING EWD
INTO FAR SERN KS AND NERN OK...AND EVENTUALLY SWRN MO/FAR NWRN AR
AFTER 01Z. AIR MASS RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO S-CNTRL MO REMAINS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING IMMINENT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR PRIMARILY
LARGE HAIL COULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THESE AREAS GIVEN THE PRESENCE
OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRONG WIND GUST AND TORNADO
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAKER GIVEN THE COOL
BOUNDARY-LAYER. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF MORE THAN A LOCALIZED SVR RISK
WILL MATERIALIZE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 03/30/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 37869612 38179511 38259442 38079371 37149387 35839473
35579560 35579664 36049715 37169705 37869612
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1qkm6Pm
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