MD 0304 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHEAST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 0304 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Tue May 01 2018 Areas affected...Central KS into southeast NE Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 011810Z - 012045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...One or two tornado watches will be needed by mid-afternoon (20-21Z) across central Kansas into southeast Nebraska. DISCUSSION...Surface mesoanalyses this afternoon showed an area of low pressure located in northwest KS, while the equatorward-trailing dryline was continuing to shift east through southwest KS. DDC radar imagery showed this boundary located between KGCK and KDDC at 1740Z and into central portions of the OK and TX Panhandles. Clearing skies per visible satellite imagery have allowed for stronger surface heating across the warm sector where the environment continues to moisten per southerly low-level winds. These changes in boundary-layer thermodynamics (reduction in inhibition) have allowed cumulus clouds to develop along the KS portion of the dryline into adjacent part of the OK Panhandle, as the environment further destabilizes (mixed-layer CAPE is already up to 2500 J/kg). Deeper moist convection is expected by 20-21Z along the KS dryline as stronger ascent within the exit region of southwesterly mid- and upper-level jets shift into the central Plains this afternoon and evening. Trends in the operational HRRR continue to suggest storm development along the KS portion of the dryline by 21Z, with some potential for initiation by around 20Z. Further low-level moistening and increasing vertically veering winds will support supercell development with an attendant threat for all severe hazards. Initial storms will be capable of producing very large hail, while a tornado threat (some strong) will increase, given a strengthening southerly low-level jet resulting in increased hodograph curvature this evening. ..Peters/Grams.. 05/01/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 37349992 38149990 39429952 40089898 41169757 41449659 41379612 40879586 40329599 39289672 38319768 37539859 37229942 37179971 37349992
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2KuHJaC
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