SPC MD 318

MD 0318 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN KS…NORTHEASTERN OK

MD 0318 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0318
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Areas affected...Eastern/southeastern KS...northeastern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 241900Z - 242100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the
next few hours. Some of these storms will be capable of hail and/or
damaging wind gusts. Convective trends will be monitored closely for
possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis reveals a dryline moving
eastward across central KS, roughly extending from CNK southward to
very near WLD and continuing southward through central OK. Recent
radar and satellite imagery have shown attempts at more robust
convection along the dryline over north-central OK (Kay, Pawnee, and
Osage counties) and far south-central KS (Cowley and Butler
counties). However, updrafts have remained weak thus far, likely a
result of warm mid-level temperatures and subsequent weak
instability.

Low-level moisture will continue to gradually increase ahead of the
dryline with recent satellite imagery also suggesting there will be
enough clearing for modest diurnal heating. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop as the forcing for ascent provide by the dryline
and approaching upper low interact with this more unstable
environment. Shear profiles are supportive of rotating storms with
the cool temperatures aloft suggesting the threat for some severe
hail. A couple damaging wind gusts are also possible, particularly
with any well-developed thunderstorms clusters. Trends across the
region will be monitored closely for possible watch issuance.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/24/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37339693 38389698 39409711 39279575 38509507 37699496
            36249528 36249679 37339693 

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