SPC MD 336

MD 0336 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KS…NORTH-CENTRAL OK

Mesoscale Discussion 0336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020

Areas affected...Central/Eastern KS...North-Central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 112043Z - 112245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Potential exists for a couple supercells capable of large
hail and damaging wind gusts along the dryline over the next several
hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis shows a dryline extending from
near the NE/IA/MO border intersection southwestward through
south-central KS and northwest OK into the TX Panhandle. Visible
satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across much of
central/eastern KS and north-central OK. Convective initiation
recently occurred over north-central OK along this dryline, which
may be a sign of things to come as the front continues eastward and
strong moisture advection persists across the region. This moisture
advection should help offset the effects of boundary-layer mixing
somewhat, resulting in little to no CINH as the dryline moves
through. 

Given the amount of dry air aloft, updrafts may initially struggle
but steep mid-level lapse rates (and resulting strong buoyancy) and
increasing vertical shear should compensate somewhat, resulting in
the potential for a couple supercells. Primary threat will be large
hail but damaging downburst winds also seem probable with any more
robust updrafts. Storm coverage is expected to remain isolated,
preclude higher watch probability, but trends will be monitored
closely.

..Mosier/Grams.. 04/11/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   36719882 37649767 39289610 39019506 37299551 36459638
            35949725 35769825 35989869 36719882 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2JWYV9x