MD 0337 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN KS…FAR SOUTHEASTERN NE…FAR SOUTHWESTERN IA…AND NORTHWESTERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0337
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Thu May 03 2018
Areas affected...Portions of northeastern KS...far southeastern
NE...far southwestern IA...and northwestern MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 031936Z - 032130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for isolated severe thunderstorms should continue
to increase this afternoon. Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps
a tornado or two all appear possible. Watch issuance is being
considered.
DISCUSSION...In the wake of overnight/early morning convection, the
low-level airmass has at least partially recovered across
northeastern KS into northwestern MO and vicinity. Visible satellite
imagery shows mostly clear conditions across this region, and
surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to lower 80s
along/south of a warm front extending northeastward into southern IA
from a surface low centered over northeastward KS. Shallow
convection along a surface cold front extending southward from the
low across central KS is beginning to show signs of vertical
development, and thunderstorms should continue to strengthen this
afternoon as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to an upper
low across the central High Plains overspreads this region. With
sufficient low-level moisture present, MLCAPE of generally 500-1500
J/kg will support thunderstorm maintenance through the evening
hours. Effective bulk shear values of 50+ kt will be favorable for
supercell structures, and large hail/damaging winds will both be
possible. There will also be some threat for tornadoes given
low-level winds strengthening and modestly veering with height.
Effective SRH values around 150-200 m2/s2 should be maximized near
the surface warm front.
..Gleason/Hart.. 05/03/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38349534 38069609 38019669 38209720 38809739 40079685
40829605 41109513 41199437 41109371 40859335 40389330
39929348 39609373 38889464 38349534
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1gqBYUs
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