MD 0040 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR WESTERN NORTH TX INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0040 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017 Areas affected...Western North TX into western and central OK Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 140405Z - 140900Z SUMMARY...Showers producing freezing rain with rates around 0.05 inch per 3 hours will continue to develop and spread north across portions of western North TX into southwest, west, and central OK into the overnight. Locally greater freezing rain rates around 0.05-0.10 inches per hour will be possible, with stronger showers and/or isolated thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...Trends in evening surface observations showed temperatures across much of western North TX through western and central OK were in the upper 20s to around 30 F. At 03Z, the freezing line extended northeast from portions of western North TX through extreme south-central to northeast OK. Since 0130Z, mosaic radar imagery indicated areas of showers increasing some in coverage, intensity, and longevity in an area from KABI to KSEP to southern OK from KFSI to KPVJ. These showers appear to be developing in a region of increasing low-level convergence within the nose of a 30-kt south-southeasterly 850-mb jet across west and central TX. Meanwhile, an area of cooler cloud tops moving to the north-northeast across this same region likely indicate greater upward motion ahead of a shortwave trough located over Far West TX. Composite map analysis of 00Z upper air data and recent surface observations showed a shallow northward-sloping frontal zone with the surface front extending from the Arklatex to DRT, while the 850-mb front was much farther north from central MO to central and southwest KS and the northern TX Panhandle. Lift will continue to increase across the discussion area as the Far West TX trough moves toward the north-northeast and the low-level jet strengthens. These factors may aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms, given steeper midlevel lapse rates per 00Z soundings at MAF/AMA. However, the aforementioned frontal slope suggests showers should tend to be mostly shallow, producing mainly light precipitation rates. ..Peters.. 01/14/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 33969966 35669907 36259856 36379821 36439736 36349668 36219616 35739598 34689677 34249776 33849855 33829914 33969966
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