SPC MD 405


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Mesoscale Discussion 0405
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

Areas affected...Northern KS...Southeast NE...Northwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 140100Z - 140330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Convection is expected to increase this evening, with the
strongest cells capable of isolated severe hail.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have rapidly intensified to the southwest
of KHYS over the last 30 hour, to the north of ongoing activity
across southwest KS and just to the south of a surface cold front.
Additional strong convection has recently developed over far
southeast NE, to the north of a weak surface boundary. An increasing
low-level jet will likely result in an increase in convection this
evening, with at least isolated instances of large hail possible
given very steep lapse rates, large buoyancy, and marginally
supportive effective shear of 25-35 kt, as noted in regional 00Z

The need for watch issuance is uncertain at this time, given that
the primary severe threat in this regime is expected to be in the
short term, between the southernmost surface boundary and primary
cold front approaching from the north, where near-surface-based
updrafts are possible. Elevated convection will likely continue into
the late evening, but increasingly unfavorable storm modes will
likely tend to limit the hail risk overnight.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   39119967 39349970 39819944 40119843 40459685 40539540
            40549475 40219439 39779422 39389427 39089530 38919628
            38789715 38689857 39119967 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2rGcYGX

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