MD 0431 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 121… FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA…WESTERN ARKANSAS…SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI…AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0431
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2017
Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...western Arkansas...southwestern
Missouri...and southeastern Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 121...
Valid 042334Z - 050030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 121
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe-weather threat continues across portions of WW
121. Local extensions of this watch in time and space may be needed
especially across southwestern Missouri beyond the scheduled 02Z
expiration time of WW 121.
DISCUSSION...Scattered hail-producing thunderstorms continue to move
northeastward across the WW at this time. The greatest severe
threat currently exists within a complex in far northeastern
Oklahoma that earlier produced widespread 1-2 inch diameter hail
stones near the Tulsa metro area. These storms will soon cross into
Missouri, with a continued hail and isolated wind threat as storms
potentially congeal into linear segments. A tornado cannot be ruled
out through dark. It is uncertain how far northeast into Missouri
the severe threat will exist owing to weaker surface-based
instability northeast of Springfield. Most of the severe weather
threat is expected to diminish after 02Z, although local space/time
extensions of WW 121 may be needed thereafter to address any
lingering severe threat.
Farther south along a dryline near the US 69 corridor, scattered
thunderstorms have increased over the past 1-2 hours, with some
supercell structures noted. Hail and wind gusts will be the primary
threat with this relatively high-based activity resulting from
strong shear and steep mid-level lapse rates, but modest low-level
moisture content. An isolated severe threat may extend into western
Arkansas with this activity - especially if ongoing dryline storms
can congeal into a line.
Finally, areas on the northwestern periphery of WW 121 may
experience isolated instances of one-inch hail as elevated storms
move northeastward through this region.
..Cook/Edwards.. 04/04/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...
OUN...
LAT...LON 36929737 37349682 37959569 38209481 38319373 37949289
37369273 36289333 35219373 34489395 34149432 33829456
33879500 33909519 33859587 33869621 34039627 34389609
35069608 35699642 36089680 36319723 36589748 36929737
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2nHGZmy
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