MD 0465 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 108… FOR WEST AND NORTHWEST TX…WESTERN AND NORTHERN OK…SOUTHEAST KS…AND SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0465 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018 Areas affected...West and northwest TX...western and northern OK...southeast KS...and southwest MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108... Valid 192311Z - 200115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108 continues. SUMMARY...Local WFO extensions in area are possible across parts of south-central MO and in west TX. Two areas of strong to severe storms persist across the southern part of WW 108 (in northwest TX to southwest OK) and northeast OK through southeast KS and southwest MO. Large hail and damaging winds should be the primary threats in the short term, though a tornado cannot be ruled out in either of these portions of the watch. DISCUSSION......Northwest TX to south-central OK... Water vapor imagery showed a progressive shortwave trough moving through much of western TX late this afternoon. Forcing for ascent with this trough is aiding in continued thunderstorm development near and north of a boundary extending from King County TX to Cochran County TX. Storm mergers across Cottle and Childress counties TX appear to have formed into a cluster or attempts at being linear. All of these storms in northwest TX are located within the strongest corridor of instability (MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg) and the southern extent of effective bulk shear favorable for supercells. 22Z mesoanalysis showed a boundary extending from Cottle and Foard counties TX into south-central OK (north of KSPS-KADM). Given the current eastward movement of the Cottle/Childress counties cluster and new rapid storm development in Foard County TX, these storms should track to the east-northeast into far southwest to south-central OK this evening. ...West TX... Additional sustained updrafts per radar imagery were forming to the south-southwest between KLBB and KMAF in vicinity of the dryline. Trends in vertical wind profiles indicated backing of low-midlevel winds (surface to 700-mb winds) resulting in an increase of surface convergence along the dryline and providing some strengthening of effective bulk shear to support storm organization. Therefore, the CAPE/shear parameter space is becoming more conducive to support sustained updrafts and subsequent sever storm threat. Counties in WFO LUB area may need to be added to WW 108. ...Southwest to south-central MO... A forward propagating MCS moving east at 40 kt is posing a severe-weather threat for damaging winds across more of southern MO, resulting in an areal extension of WW 108. This bow may begin to track to the east-southeast, near and north of a west-northwest to east-southeast oriented outflow boundary located across southern MO, where the strongest instability is located. ..Peters.. 05/19/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...SJT...LUB... AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 32660267 34130137 34460018 36069946 36509895 37089812 37059659 38049538 38209389 38329264 38129190 37319174 36639230 36489475 36429554 35959661 35319752 34749783 34209816 33859851 33469929 32910088 32660267
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1qRJJP5
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