MD 0474 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0474 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019 Areas affected...southeast KS into southwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 290900Z - 291030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts may persist another 1-2 hours as the bow echo approaches west-central and southwest MO. Overall severe threat will remain limited and a watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...A mature bow echo is tracking across southeast KS early this morning. Latest tracking info suggest the line is shifting east at around 50-55 mph. This is consistent with regional 88-D VWP data indicating south/southwesterly flow from around 1 to 6 km between 45 and 60 kt. Strong wind gusts may continue as the line approaches the KS/MO border given the strength of the rear inflow and forward speed of the line. However, instability quickly diminishes with eastward extent where poorer quality moisture (surface dewpoints into the mid 40s to low 50s) exists across western MO. Furthermore, boundary-layer inhibition is quite strong. Radar trends continue to indicate further weakening and this is expected to continue as the line pushes into west-central/southwest MO. While a locally strong wind gust is possible, the overall severe threat is expected to remain low and a watch is not expected. ..Leitman/Edwards.. 04/29/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38659556 38669502 38499405 38259358 37979329 37699329 37319348 37069376 36989419 36989442 37049519 37349626 37619661 37889650 38209593 38659556
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2LpBx8v
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