MD 0048 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR WEST-CENTRAL KS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0048 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017 Areas affected...west-central KS eastward into parts of central and north-central KS Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 150755Z - 151400Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates exceeding 0.05 inch per 3 hours are forecast to gradually develop northward through the discussion area during the 08 UTC - 14 UTC period. The heaviest 3-hourly rates (0.10-0.20 inch) will likely be confined to south of I-70 and begin to occur generally after 10 UTC. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic indicates a northward advancing shield of moderate precipitation ---surface observations confirm hourly freezing rain rates 0.05-0.20 inch--- moving across the northeastern TX and OK Panhandles and eastward along the OK/KS border as of 0755 UTC. The precipitation is occurring atop a shallow sub-freezing near-surface layer ---reference the 00 UTC DDC raob--- and is in response to increased forcing for ascent via low-level warm-air-advection and moisture flux processes and related to the approaching mid-level low/trough located over northwestern Mexico and the Desert Southwest. Short-term models suggest precipitation will expand northward into the discussion area tonight into the early morning. The locally heavier rates will be associated with convective showers south of I-70 with lighter freezing rain amounts associated within the peripheral areas of the rain shield. Forecast soundings show the shallow cold wedge being maintained through 14 UTC and supportive of a freezing-rain precipitation type. ..Smith.. 01/15/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39629667 39069624 38359643 37910063 38210107 38790110 39290082 39839754 39629667
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