MD 0488 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 141… FOR SOUTHEAST NM AND FAR WEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0488
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0721 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2017
Areas affected...Southeast NM and Far West TX
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 141...
Valid 130021Z - 130145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 141
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe-weather risk for large hail and strong wind gusts
should remain across southeast NM into Far West TX through the early
evening. Although storms will continue into portions of West TX
(north of the Midland/Odessa), overall severe-weather potential
should remain lower than locations farther to the southwest and
south.
DISCUSSION...A continuation of cooling cloud tops with some areal
expansion has been underway during the last 1-2 hours (since 2230Z)
per trends in IR satellite imagery across much of WW 141. Mosaic
radar imagery indicated new storms continue to develop along mainly
the western and southern extent of this MCS, where the greatest
corridor of instability remains early this evening. This moderate
instability, strong bulk shear (given vertically veering winds) and
steep lapse rates (per 00z EPZ sounding) will continue to support
robust/sustained updrafts supporting large hail and strong/damaging
wind gusts.
Forcing for ascent attendant to an eastward-moving shortwave trough
across southeast NM and Far West TX (at this time) combined with a
strengthening southeasterly low-level jet providing an influx of
rich moisture suggests this MCS should persist through the evening.
These factors suggest, at least, the southern part of WW 141 could
pose a severe-weather threat beyond the 02Z expiration across Far
West TX and perhaps eastward into the far western part of the
Edwards Plateau.
..Peters.. 04/13/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 31290160 30000175 29280304 29160370 29700441 30480498
31430584 32440624 33570633 34570586 34430527 34010487
34010389 33500336 33410175 33410152 32080167 31290160
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