MD 0497 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0497
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0430 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017
Areas affected...Central into northeast KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 152130Z - 152300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in
the next couple of hours. A conditional threat of large hail and
locally damaging wind will exist with any supercell that can
develop.
DISCUSSION...At 2130Z, cumulus is slowly increasing along and ahead
of a surface trough/wind shift across central into northeast KS.
Modifying the 20Z TOP sounding for conditions closer to the boundary
suggests that inhibition is becoming minimal, with very steep
midlevel lapse rates supporting moderate-to-strong buoyancy. While
midlevel flow is not particularly strong, it is sufficient to
support 30-35 kts of effective shear, which would support supercell
development given the favorable instability.
With generally weak large-scale ascent in place, storm coverage in
the next few hours will likely be isolated at best, but a
conditional threat of large hail and locally damaging winds will
exist with any supercell that can develop. Coverage concerns make
the need for a watch uncertain, but the area will be closely
monitored given the favorable environment that is in place.
..Dean/Hart.. 04/15/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...
LAT...LON 38239961 38909842 39609719 39739669 39829516 39589512
39209524 38569558 38329656 38219810 38239961
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