MD 0502 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST KS…NORTHEAST OK…AND FAR SOUTHWEST MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0502 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0401 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHEAST OK...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 292101Z - 292300Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND ADJACENT NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OK...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHWEST MO /FROM VERNON TO JASPER COUNTIES/. DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND LOCAL STORM REPORTS INDICATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE AFFECTED SOUTH-CENTRAL KS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OK. AT 2044Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM CHASE TO WILSON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES KS...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXTENDING FROM COWLEY COUNTY KS TO FAR WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY OK. E/NELY SURFACE WINDS AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND LIKELY INGESTING MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AT AND ABOVE 0.5 KM AGL PER TLX AND TULSA VAD WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH SOUTHEAST KS. CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD OUTRUN THE BETTER INFLOW LAYER OF GREATER INSTABILITY AS IT REACHES SOUTHWEST MO. ..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36769692 37349701 38159676 38329579 38369498 37959463 37429460 37119465 36859540 36699653 36769692
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1XYIkRM
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