MD 0522 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 149… FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0522 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0701 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017 Areas affected...Central and Northeast KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 149... Valid 200001Z - 200130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 149 continues. SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue for the next few hours along the southern end of a cold front pushing through central KS. Primary severe threat is large hail. Isolated hail and damaging winds gusts are also possible with the cluster of storms moving southeastward across western KS. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developed rapidly over the past hour and half along a cold front tracking southeastward into northeast and central KS. Latest surface analysis placed this front from BIE in southeast NE to just southeast of RSL in central KS to north of DDC in southern KS. Expectation is for this front to continue pushing southeastward with the ongoing storms expected to persist for at least the next few hours. The downstream environment across northeast KS is already stabilizing somewhat. The stabilizing trend is expected continue with storm intensity gradually decreasing as a result. Storms along the southern end of the line should persist longer given the presence of better low-level moisture and instability as well as increased convergence resulting from a strengthening low-level jet. These storms also have the highest likelihood of severe as they encounter the better instability. Primary severe threat remain large hail with some damaging wind gusts also anticipated. Farther northwest, a pair of storms developed near the central KS/CO border behind the cold front with recent radar scan suggesting these storms are quite intense (i.e. MESH around an inch and over 50 dBZ on the 9 km CAPPI). Recent storm motion on this cluster is estimated to be southeastward at 40 kt. The downstream thermodynamic environment is not overly favorable, but enough instability exists for storm persistence, particularly given the strength of the bulk shear. Deeply mixed downstream environment is favorable for damaging wind gusts and some severe threat could result as this cluster continues southeastward. A local watch extension may be needed to cover this potential threat. ..Mosier.. 04/20/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39110184 38859994 38959954 39389901 39989821 40299689 40219562 39669508 37979586 37099871 37570124 39110184
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