MD 0557 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0557
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 082021Z - 082115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.
DISCUSSION...EARLIER CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER HAS RESULTED IN SLOW
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GREATEST DESTABILIZATION BEING NEAR THE NW OK/S-CNTRL KS BORDER.
CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF THE CAP
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EITHER 1. MOVE NORTHEAST INTO S-CNTRL KS
FROM NW OK -OR- 2. DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE/WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH INTERSECTION NEAR DDC. WHILE IT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN
HOW STORMS WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AS STORMS TRACK NORTHEAST INTO N-CNTRL KS TOWARD THE WARM
FRONT...A TRANSITION TO BOWING SEGMENTS IS POSSIBLE...WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS IF THIS OCCURS. EASTWARD EXTENT
OF THE THREAT REMAINS UNCLEAR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN KS MUCH OF THE DAY. AS SUCH...THE MOSTLY
LIKELY AREA TO SEE SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING IS
PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL KS AND A WATCH WILL BE LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 05/08/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 40019933 39979852 39929821 39659773 39069739 37929707
37249700 36979735 36979876 37039951 37229985 37349996
38020050 38790068 39350052 39770009 39899986 40019933
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/RBu8ll
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