SPC MD 560

MD 0560 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 150… FOR PORTIONS OF KS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEB

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0560
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF KS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEB

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 150...

VALID 082333Z - 090100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 150 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL/TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING /THROUGH 01-02Z/ ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KS AS
STORMS GENERALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. TORNADO WATCH 150 CONTINUES
UNTIL 03Z/10 PM CDT. PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL KS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A SPATIAL WATCH EXTENSION OR NEW WATCH...FOR MAINLY AN
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL RISK.

DISCUSSION...LATEST MESOANALYSIS FEATURES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KS WITH A NORTHEASTWARD-EXTENDING WARM FRONT ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL KS INTO FAR SOUTHERN NEB...WITH A SOUTHWARD-EXTENDING
DRYLINE SLOWLY ADVANCING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
/WEST OF THE GREAT BEND-PRATT-MEDICINE LODGE AREAS AS OF 23Z/. A
ZONE OF CLOUDY/RAIN-COOLED AIR IS ALSO A FACTOR ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35/I-135 AND THE KS TURNPIKE VICINITY.

WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...WITH
LOWER/SOME MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS RESIDE...WHILE A MORE
COMPLEX/LESS DISCRETE SUPERCELLULAR MODE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL KS IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
COINCIDENT WITH MODEST PRESSURE FALLS...SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO
BACK SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL KS. WHILE CURVING
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE OBSERVED IN REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM
WICHITA/DODGE CITY/VANCE AIR FORCE BASE...LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WIND
SPEEDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY OVERLY STRONG AS OF 23Z...ALTHOUGH
NONETHELESS SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO RISK. THAT SAID...LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN PARTICULARLY AFTER 00Z...WHICH
COULD ACCOUNT FOR AN INCREASING TORNADO RISK /PERHAPS EVEN A STRONG
TORNADO OR TWO/ ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL KS AND POSSIBLY SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. 

FARTHER EAST...ISOLATED STRONG-TO-SEVERE/GENERALLY ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST/SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
KS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED BY THE COOL NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED ACROSS EASTERN KS.

..GUYER.. 05/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39130070 39740115 40260002 40169799 38729716 38929492
            37919510 37109737 37109905 38409986 39130070 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/24EEp3U