MD 0565 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST/NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST/NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 090739Z - 091045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS WEST INTO NORTHWEST TX...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NORTHEAST
INTO PART OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX BY
DAYBREAK. ISOLATED HAIL REACHING OR EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER/SUSTAINED ELEVATED CORES. A
WATCH IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...SINCE 05Z...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUDS
DEVELOPING WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS WEST TX IN AN AREA FROM
NEAR MAF TO 55 SSE LBB TO 50 E BGS. RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND
LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED AT LEAST TWO AREAS OF STORMS HAD FORMED IN
THIS REGION IN MARTIN/HOWARD COUNTIES AND STERLING TO NOLAN
COUNTIES. THIS CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING 1/ WITHIN THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF A MOIST AIR MASS LOCATED EAST OF A DRY LINE...WHICH
EXTENDED FROM THE FAR EASTERN TX PANHANDLE SWWD TO THE EAST OF LBB
TO WINK TX...AND NEAR A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO
CONVECTION NOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST TX. MEANWHILE...TRANSVERSE
CLOUD BANDS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST NM TO THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE
INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN NM/FAR WEST TX. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH.
ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ATTENDANT WITHIN THE NOSE OF A
50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDED INTO THE
DEVELOPING WEST TX STORMS. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR AND/OR NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO
REMAIN ELEVATED ATOP A NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /GIVEN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY 500-MB
WINDS/ IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED.
MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST HAIL /SOME EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER/ WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO VEER THROUGH
12Z...BECOMING PARALLEL TO FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ONGOING
STORMS OR CLUSTERS TO BECOME LINEAR IN STRUCTURE...AS THEY MOVE INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND SOUTHERN OK. IN ADDITION TO AN ISOLATED HAIL
THREAT...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
12Z...THOUGH TIME OF DAY AND THE NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER MAY LIMIT
STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/09/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33090137 33730057 34249979 34779839 34619670 33699655
32369944 31950051 32090128 32440173 33090137
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1T08ujy
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