SPC MD 566

MD 0566 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153… FOR NORTH-CENTRAL THROUGH EAST KS/FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEB

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0566
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL THROUGH EAST KS/FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153...

VALID 090835Z - 091030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL /SOME REACHING OR EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER/ WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...
WITH THIS MARGINAL SEVERE RISK DIMINISHING AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH MID
MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS.  WW 153 WILL LIKELY EXPIRE AT
09Z.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED STORMS OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL KS REMAINED NEAR-SEVERE WITH HAIL ESTIMATED NEAR 1
INCH PER MRMS MESH DATA.  DESPITE THESE FEW STRONGER STORMS...
OVERALL STORM INTENSITIES WERE TENDING TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF WW 153.  THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AS STRONGER FORCING
ALOFT MOVES POLEWARD AWAY FROM KS WITH A MIDLEVEL TROUGH TRACKING
THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH WITH THE REDUCTION IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH THROUGH EAST
KS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEB GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA.  THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-8.5 C/KM PER OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES AND AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS/ WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGER ELEVATED CORES THROUGH 12Z. 
WEAKENING OF THE LLJ BETWEEN 12-15Z WILL SUPPORT A FURTHER
DIMINISHING TREND IN STORM INTENSITIES.

..PETERS.. 05/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   37519708 38079757 38619780 38889815 39189891 39469953
            40009891 40269745 40359648 40269590 39679564 39029563
            38609568 38149587 37539627 37399642 37519708 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1SY6L1P