MD 0568 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN OK…CNTRL/ERN KS…SERN NEB…AND FAR WRN MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN OK...CNTRL/ERN KS...SERN
NEB...AND FAR WRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 091846Z - 091945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY SOON.
DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM/SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT MID LEVELS ACROSS SWRN KS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE MCD AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF
EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT HAS SINCE MOVED EWD ACROSS MO...DIURNAL
HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF
CNRTL/ERN OK/KS INTO SWRN NEB AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE AS
OF 1830Z. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS
BUILDING ALONG THE DRYLINE IN NWRN OK/S-CNTRL KS...AND CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG
WILL BE COMMON WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 DEG C/KM.
AN 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM OUN CONFIRMS RAP FORECAST IS
REASONABLE. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE OVERLY
STRONG...SUFFICIENT VEERING/STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SOME OF THE HAIL COULD BE VERY LARGE /IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES/ GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION. WITH INSTABILITY WEAKENING WITH NWD
EXTENT INTO SWRN NEB...IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR N A SEVERE
THREAT WILL DEVELOP. FINALLY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH MORE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAKER
LOW-LEVEL WINDS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER S SUGGEST THE OVERALL
TORNADO THREAT MAY BE RELATIVELY LOW.
..GLEASON/HART.. 05/09/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...
DDC...
LAT...LON 37069453 36499451 35589442 35569542 35419663 35309769
35469833 37089846 39309843 40629791 40599597 40429517
39119446 37069453
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1uS6cJV
Be First to Comment