MD 0575 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 154…156… FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0575
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 154...156...
VALID 100033Z - 100130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
154...156...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF WWS 154 AND 156. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
DISCUSSION...CONTINUE WWS 154 AND 156. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS
BEGUN THE PROCESS OF CONGEALING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES. AS THESE
STORMS CONGEAL...LARGE HAIL /INCLUDING BASEBALL HAIL REPORTS FROM
WASHINGTON COUNTY KANSAS/ AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH ANY ISOLATED CELL
THAT CAN ACQUIRE ROTATION. AS THESE STORMS CONGEAL...THEY MAY BEGIN
A SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH TIME /ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA/.
FARTHER SOUTH...A COUPLE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE EVIDENT NEAR
THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER...AND ANOTHER ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELL
PERSISTS ACROSS PAWNEE/OSAGE OKLAHOMA. IN THIS REGION...BACKING OF
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS BENEATH STRONGER /30-50 KNOT/ WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT. LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS EXCEEDING 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
PARTS OF THIS REGION HAVE ALREADY BEEN UPGRADED TO A TORNADO
WATCH...AND ADDITIONAL AREAS MAY BE UPGRADED AS CONVECTION EVOLVES.
ADDITIONALLY...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT NEW
DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
GIVEN STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG A DRYLINE IN THE REGION AND AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY MATURE STORM THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS REGIME.
..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/10/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...
GID...
LAT...LON 36739826 37069782 37439746 37789735 38499736 38999773
39359810 39879812 40519774 41059738 41439696 41729654
41999595 42069555 42099505 42009460 41809442 41469443
40979459 40489493 39839526 38929530 38329512 37589507
36969497 36629485 36319495 36069550 35939635 35959694
36089757 36399815 36739826
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1WWIBWR
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