MD 0580 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN KANSAS…SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…NORTHWEST MISSOURI…SOUTHWEST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0580
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020
Areas affected...Northern Kansas...Southeast Nebraska...Northwest
Missouri...Southwest Iowa
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 140448Z - 140715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A large hail threat may develop across parts of the
central Plains tonight from northeast Kansas into southwest Iowa.
Weather watch issuance is currently being considered.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 999 mb low over
southeast Colorado. A warm front extends east-northeastward from the
low across north-central and northeast Kansas. Thunderstorms are
currently developing near the front to the northeast of Salina,
Kansas. As a 40 to 50 kt low-level jet continues to strengthen,
convective development is expected to take place across much of
northeast Kansas. An east-to-west band of thunderstorms should move
northeastward into southeast Nebraska, northwest Missouri and
southwest Iowa in the 05Z to 07Z timeframe. MUCAPE in the 1500 to
2000 J/kg range, steep mid-level lapse rates and effective shear of
30 to 40 kt should be favorable for hail with the stronger cores,
and possibly some large hail. The storms will remain elevated due to
a strong capping inversion limiting the wind damage threat.
..Broyles/Hart.. 05/14/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 40099330 39799384 39509543 39339650 39289768 39489813
39839827 40339813 40689737 41019600 41199487 40839355
40099330
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2T30BDv
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