MD 0588 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 182… FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS…WESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI…FAR SOUTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0588
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0822 PM CDT Thu May 14 2020
Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Western and Northern
Missouri...Far Southern Iowa
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182...
Valid 150122Z - 150315Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 182
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue for several more hours
across northeast Kansas, northern Missouri and far southern Iowa.
The storms will gradually move eastward and should impact the
eastern part of WW 182.
DISCUSSION...An MCS is ongoing along a pre-frontal surface trough
from southern Iowa southwestward to northeast Kansas. The RAP is
analyzing moderate instabity from near the surface trough eastward
across much of eastern Kansas and central to northern Missouri.
Three clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing in the
vicinity of WW 182. The first is in northwest Missouri near the axis
of a 700 mb jet. This area is slightly less unstable but more
strongly sheared. Storm mode has mostly been linear suggesting a
wind damage and hail threat will continue across northwest Missouri.
The second area of strong to severe thunderstorms is located in
central to northeast Kansas where MLCAPE is higher (MLPCAPE of 2500
to 3500 J/kg). This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and
moderate deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells with
large hail. As cells merge and a line organizes over the next few
hours, the wind damage threat is expected to increase. This activity
should move eastward across the remainder of northeast Kansas and
may affect parts of far western Missouri later this evening.
The third area of strong to severe thunderstorms is located in
northeast Missouri near a maxima in instability (MLCAPE near 2500
J/kg). This area has slightly less deep-layer shear than further to
the north suggesting the storms will remain mostly unorganized. A
wind damage and hail threat may exist with the stronger cores.
..Broyles.. 05/15/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 40879259 40579185 40069205 39169333 37899508 37969612
38449713 38839709 39369611 39969506 40929321 40879259
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/3fSQquQ
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