MD 0634 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 189… FOR NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0634
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 AM CDT Wed May 03 2017
Areas affected...Northeast OK and northwest AR
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 189...
Valid 030954Z - 031130Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 189
continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong wind gusts will remain possible
through the early morning (prior to daybreak) across northeast
Oklahoma, within primarily the eastern half of WW 189. Local WFO
areal expansion is likely into northeast OK, and perhaps into
northwest AR.
DISCUSSION...Since 0850Z, IR satellite imagery indicated cooling
cloud tops across Washington County, which was concurrent with
increasing intensities (per mosaic radar reflectivity and CAPPI data
at 5 km and 7 km), within the leading eastward-moving band of storms
that have moved east of Osage County. The attendant
forward-propagating MCS will continue to track into a relatively
more stable environment. However, low-level winds in southwest to
central OK have veered to southwesterly and are maintaining an
inflow of marginal instability (MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) into the
southern flank of the northeast OK/southeast KS MCS. This combined
with strong effective bulk shear should sustain the stronger storm
intensities during the short term. These factors combined with an
eastward movement at 35-40 kt suggests locally strong wind gusts
will continue to be a potential severe-weather risk within the
eastern half of WW 189, while a few additional counties may need to
be added to this watch in northeast OK, and perhaps northwest AR.
..Peters.. 05/03/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 36119629 36569576 36969568 36979468 36429402 35839408
35889495 36119629
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2p54WEb
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