MD 0687 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN OK AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0687
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017
Areas affected...Northern OK and southern/eastern KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 102037Z - 102230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster of storms, with isolated severe hail potential,
will continue to spread northeastward into the late afternoon and
early evening hours. Present indications are that Watch issuance
will be unlikely, though environmental/convective trends will
continue to be monitored.
DISCUSSION...Isentropic ascent in the low levels is being enhanced
as a mass response to a subtle mid-level wave crossing parts of the
OK and western KS. A cluster of convection ingesting inflow rooted
above a somewhat stable near-surface layer will continue advancing
northeastward into the early evening hours. Modest moisture
transport beneath moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (around 7.5
C/km per the 17Z Lamont sounding) will support a few robust
updrafts. Effective shear around 40-60 kt may support mid-level
mesocyclones supporting isolated instances of severe hail. Present
indications are that static stability in the lowest couple of
kilometers above ground will tend to suppress buoyancy and mitigate
a more substantial surface-based convective risk. Furthermore,
large-scale ascent is somewhat modest. These factors cast
considerable doubt regarding prospects for Watch-caliber severe
coverage.
..Cohen/Guyer.. 05/10/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 37979478 37169471 36519501 36259593 36099723 37069835
37459775 37819684 38189550 37979478
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1jKoS9L
Be First to Comment