MD 0704 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN KANSAS…FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA…SOUTHWEST IOWA…AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0704
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020
Areas affected...Eastern Kansas...Far southeast Nebraska...Southwest
Iowa...and northwest Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 241813Z - 241945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected in the next
1 to 2 hours.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and composite radar imagery as well
as 18Z surface observations show a well pronounced MCV just north of
Wichita. The area east and northeast of the this MCV has
destabilized with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the mid
to upper 60s. SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCIN has mostly eroded across
this region with MLCAPE ranging from 1000 to 2500 J/kg with the
greatest instability in northern Missouri. Therefore, more
widespread storm development is expected in the next 1 to 2 hours in
the vicinity of the MCV and the outflow boundaries in northeast
Kansas and northwest Missouri. Evidence of a compact mid-level
circulation with enhanced flow can be seen on the ICT and TWX VWP
where mid-level winds are 40 knots out of the west-southwest and 50
knots out of the southeast respectively. This stronger flow will aid
in storm organization later this afternoon as the airmass ahead and
east of this MCV continues to destabilize and more robust updraft
development begins. Effective shear will support some supercell
storm modes with a threat for both large hail and damaging winds.
In addition, there is a conditional tornado threat in the vicinity
of the outflow boundaries and where surface winds can remain backed
ahead and east of the MCV. While low-level flow isn't all that
strong, there will be some low-level turning where winds remain
backed and the EAX VWP shows a belt of 30 knot southwesterly winds
between 2-3 km suggesting some speed shear in this vicinity.
..Bentley/Hart.. 05/24/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38169486 38339620 38639693 39309723 40209681 41129597
41689551 42069387 41819293 40639279 40049299 39289341
38259423 38169486
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2JuNgk6
Be First to Comment