SPC MD 706


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Mesoscale Discussion 0706
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Areas affected...Eastern NE...Far Western IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 111938Z - 112145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards,
including tornadoes, are expected to begin developing within the
next 2 hours. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus field continues to increases within the narrow
warm sector across eastern NE, just ahead of an approaching cold
front. Recent surface analysis places a low about 30 mi north of YKN
in far southeast SD, with a cold front extending southwestward
across eastern NE and into central KS. A warm front also extends
southeastward from the low across far southwest IA and
north-central/northwest MO. High-resolution visible satellite
imagery also appears to reveal a southwestward progressing outflow
boundary beneath the thicker clouds over far southeast SD.

Warm-sector between these features is characterized by temperatures
in the upper 80s, dewpoints in upper 60s/low 70s, and strong
instability. Latest mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg
with little, if any, convective inhibition remaining immediately
ahead of the front. Consequently, continued convergence in this
environment will likely lead to convective initiation within the
next hour or so. Once this occurs, rapid thunderstorm development is
anticipated with storms quickly becoming severe. Primary severe
threat appears to be large hail, some of which could be greater than
2 inches in diameter. Additionally, the favorable low-level shear
may contribute to some increased tornado potential as well. Tall,
water-loaded updrafts will also result in a threat for strong wind
gusts. A watch will likely be needed across portions of the area to
address this anticipated severe threat.

..Mosier/Grams.. 06/11/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   41289559 40419574 39979614 40079761 40569777 42139733
            42979720 43059661 42869590 42209555 41289559 

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