MD 0706 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN NE…FAR WESTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0706 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Areas affected...Eastern NE...Far Western IA Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 111938Z - 112145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are expected to begin developing within the next 2 hours. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...Cumulus field continues to increases within the narrow warm sector across eastern NE, just ahead of an approaching cold front. Recent surface analysis places a low about 30 mi north of YKN in far southeast SD, with a cold front extending southwestward across eastern NE and into central KS. A warm front also extends southeastward from the low across far southwest IA and north-central/northwest MO. High-resolution visible satellite imagery also appears to reveal a southwestward progressing outflow boundary beneath the thicker clouds over far southeast SD. Warm-sector between these features is characterized by temperatures in the upper 80s, dewpoints in upper 60s/low 70s, and strong instability. Latest mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg with little, if any, convective inhibition remaining immediately ahead of the front. Consequently, continued convergence in this environment will likely lead to convective initiation within the next hour or so. Once this occurs, rapid thunderstorm development is anticipated with storms quickly becoming severe. Primary severe threat appears to be large hail, some of which could be greater than 2 inches in diameter. Additionally, the favorable low-level shear may contribute to some increased tornado potential as well. Tall, water-loaded updrafts will also result in a threat for strong wind gusts. A watch will likely be needed across portions of the area to address this anticipated severe threat. ..Mosier/Grams.. 06/11/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 41289559 40419574 39979614 40079761 40569777 42139733 42979720 43059661 42869590 42209555 41289559
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