SPC MD 707


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Mesoscale Discussion 0707
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Areas affected...Central/North-central KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 112041Z - 112245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms may develop across north-central and
central KS this afternoon. Trends are being monitored for possible
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows an increasing
agitated cu field along and just ahead of the approaching cold
front. Airmass south of the front is well-mixed with temperatures in
the upper 90s/low 100s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This mixing has
eroded much the convective inhibition and the expectation is for
continued convergence along the cold front to result in eventual
convective initiation. However, given the amount of dry mid-level
air (sampled well by the 19Z TOP sounding), there is some question
as to how long it will be before this initiation takes place.
Additionally, convergence decreases with southern extent across KS,
casting uncertainty regarding the occurrence of thunderstorms into
central KS in the near-term. As a result, a conditional risk for
severe hail and wind exists across north-central/central KS. Trends
will be monitored for convective development and possible watch

..Mosier/Grams.. 06/11/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   38389716 38059764 37899809 37849847 38009882 38369890
            39089838 39659799 39939767 39919668 38869682 38389716 

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