MD 0707 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0707 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018 Areas affected...Central/North-central KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 112041Z - 112245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms may develop across north-central and central KS this afternoon. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows an increasing agitated cu field along and just ahead of the approaching cold front. Airmass south of the front is well-mixed with temperatures in the upper 90s/low 100s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This mixing has eroded much the convective inhibition and the expectation is for continued convergence along the cold front to result in eventual convective initiation. However, given the amount of dry mid-level air (sampled well by the 19Z TOP sounding), there is some question as to how long it will be before this initiation takes place. Additionally, convergence decreases with southern extent across KS, casting uncertainty regarding the occurrence of thunderstorms into central KS in the near-term. As a result, a conditional risk for severe hail and wind exists across north-central/central KS. Trends will be monitored for convective development and possible watch issuance. ..Mosier/Grams.. 06/11/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 38389716 38059764 37899809 37849847 38009882 38369890 39089838 39659799 39939767 39919668 38869682 38389716
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2LDG9Tx
Be First to Comment