MD 0720 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 221… FOR WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0720
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 PM CDT Sun May 24 2020
Areas affected...West-central and Northern Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221...
Valid 250348Z - 250545Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221
continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and wind damage will continue from
west-central Kansas into northern Kansas over the next few hours.
Additional weather watch issuance is not expected beyond the 05Z
expiration but a local extension may still be necessary.
DISCUSSION...The northern end of a large MCS is located along a warm
front in western, central and northeastern Kansas. This convection
is located on the northern edge of a pocket of moderate instability
with MLCAPE estimated in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range according to
the RAP. Wind profiles have a substantial amount of directional
shear near the warm front with east-northeast flow at the surface
and south-southwest flow in the 3 to 6 km layer. This is resulting
in about 35 kt of 0-6 km shear which should be supportive of
isolated severe storms late this evening. The stronger multicells
may produced isolated large hail. As line segments interact and cell
mergers occur, wind damage will also be possible. The threat is
expected to become more isolated with time. A local extension may be
needed if the severe threat persists beyond the 05Z watch
expiration, but a new watch is anticipated.
..Broyles.. 05/25/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38639572 38739706 38779825 38589890 38169938 37759978
37710049 37940077 38700082 39609986 40029776 39949631
39439554 38639572
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2LWYai0
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