MD 0731 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0731 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017 Areas affected...western/central ks Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 161903Z - 161930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across much of western and central Kansas this afternoon. Large hail and isolated tornadoes are likely, along with some damaging winds. Tornado watch will be issued shortly. DISCUSSION...Higher quality boundary-layer moisture is advecting north across the central Plains early this afternoon, per deepening/expanding cu field. Dry line should sharpen and retreat slightly over western Kansas over the next few hours and supercells are expected to develop beneath agitated mid-level convection currently expanding across this region. It's not entirely clear what is causing this mid-level convection but low-level moistening, and cooling aloft should minimize CINH such that convection should increase and expand northeast into the early evening hours. Very large hail and isolated tornadoes appear likely. ..Darrow/Hart.. 05/16/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 37130097 39159997 39589875 38989758 37229885 37130097
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