MD 0735 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN KS…CENTRAL/EASTERN NE…WESTERN IA…NORTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0735
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017
Areas affected...Northern KS...Central/Eastern NE...Western
IA...Northwest MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 162058Z - 162300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...While some uncertainty remains regarding the timing and
mode of thunderstorm initiation, severe thunderstorm development is
expected by late afternoon. Watch issuance is expected within the
next hour.
DISCUSSION...At 2045Z, a persistent area of elevated convection
continues over north-central KS, with recent intensification noted
across Jewell county, while some boundary-layer cumulus development
has recently been noted across southeast NE into western IA. As the
influence of an upper trough begins to spread over the area from the
southwest, an increase in the intensity of the elevated convection
is possible, with some potential for this activity becoming rooted
in the boundary layer. In addition, thunderstorm development is
expected later this afternoon along a cold front draped from
northwest IA through northeast/central NE into northwest KS.
Strong diurnal heating and steep low-level lapse rates are resulting
in moderate-to-strong buoyancy across the region, with MLCAPE of
2000-3500 J/kg noted in recent mesoanalyses. Strong midlevel
southwesterly flow is resulting in effective shear of 40-50 kts,
which is more than sufficient for organized storm structures. The
potential for focused initiation along the cold front, along with a
cluster potentially evolving from elevated convection over northern
KS, may result in one or more bowing structures capable of an
enhanced damaging wind threat, in addition to potentially
significant hail. The potential for sustained discrete supercells is
more uncertain, but any such activity would pose a threat of a
tornado or two, especially toward evening when boundary-layer
moisture and low-level shear become more favorable.
Despite the uncertainty regarding the exact timing and mode of the
severe threat, the eventual magnitude and coverage of the threat
will necessitate watch issuance, potentially within the hour.
..Dean/Hart.. 05/16/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...GLD...
LAT...LON 39370077 39760009 41069852 42179712 42649646 43489561
43459412 41379452 40679481 40249509 39769624 39499725
39209801 39159861 39130006 39130067 39370077
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2pTUu2L
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