MD 0747 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KS…SOUTHEAST NE…NORTHWEST MO…IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0747 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017 Areas affected...Northeast KS...Southeast NE...Northwest MO...IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 171639Z - 171745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a migratory low in northeast KS, then spread into IA. Isolated tornadoes are expected along with large hail and damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Exit region of strong mid-level jet is rapidly spreading across northeast KS late this morning. As 90kt+ 500mb speed max translates into northwest MO by 18z large-scale forcing for ascent will shift into IA. Mid-high level cloudiness has cleared nicely ahead of this feature and strong boundary-layer heating is observed ahead of the surface low. Diagnostic data suggests surface-3km lapse rates are now in excess of 8 C/km across northeast KS and further steepening is expected along a corridor extending into IA as high clouds clear. Latest visible satellite imagery suggests boundary-layer cu field is thickening immediately ahead of surface drying from eastern KS, arcing toward southeast NE. While deep convection is evolving along the trailing cold front, latest thinking is discrete supercells will evolve ahead of the front then track northeast into an increasingly buoyant air mass. Isolated tornadoes are expected, along with hail and wind. ..Darrow/Goss.. 05/17/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39509544 40189680 42449456 41569197 39119382 39509544
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2qwGdv5
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